Market Dynamics & Price Leadership
This section explores the strategic interactions between retailers over time, answering the question: who leads, and who follows?
Market competitiveness over time
Competitiveness index
5
0 = least competitive day observed, 100 = most
Today vs. the observed rangeDispersion 0.189 (avg 0.186)
Price dispersion is the average variation of prices for the same product across stores — a lower value means the market is pricing more uniformly (more competitive).
Insight
After a volatile period in mid-January, the market settled into a stable equilibrium. The level of price difference between retailers is not escalating into a price war, nor is it diminishing.Who leads and who follows?
An entry “A leads B” means A's price changes tend to happen before B's.
Primary mover
ASDA
Most frequently leads price changes.
Fastest follower
Sains
Reacts within 1.0 days of Morrisons
ASDA
Aldi
Morrisons
Sains
Tesco
ASDA
Aldi
Morrisons
Sains
Tesco
Slower reaction → Tighter coupling
Read row → column: the row retailer leads; the column retailer follows, that many days later.
View as list
AldileadsTescoby 4 days(13 products)
AldileadsMorrisonsby 4 days(16 products)
AldileadsASDAby 3 days(17 products)
ASDAleadsMorrisonsby 2 days(276 products)
SainsleadsASDAby 2 days(395 products)
ASDAleadsTescoby 2 days(366 products)
AldileadsSainsby 2 days(14 products)
MorrisonsleadsSainsby 1 days(307 products)
MorrisonsleadsTescoby 1 days(275 products)
Insight
Aldi is a primary price-setter, with the “Big Four” following its changes with a lag of several days. Among the Big Four, the relationships are much faster and more reciprocal, indicating a tight, reactive competitive cluster.